The 2023 World Junior Championship — the most high-profile NHL prospect tournament of the season — is around the corner. A common argument I hear from fans and hockey people alike is that people overreact to this event. That may be true, but where’s the fun in doing the opposite?
I think a tournament featuring the best of the best in an age group where you can measure players in a rare environment against each other, be it in facing off against another team or comparing players within their own teams, provides highly valuable information, even if it’s imperfect.
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With that said, what are the big prospect debates that could be settled or stocks that could be impacted the most by this tournament? I highlight 12 today.
1. How close is the gap between Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli in the 2023 NHL Draft?
As the 2023 NHL Draft season has progressed, Connor Bedard has been tearing up the WHL as expected, but Adam Fantilli is currently second in NCAA scoring, too. He’s generated a ton of interest as an elite pro prospect, and several NHL sources are at least entertaining the idea he could be the best player in the draft class due to his unique combination of skill, skating and physicality.
When Bedard and Fantilli were on the same club in the spring at the U18 Worlds, Bedard was clearly better. Bedard has more offense in his game, and is almost a full year younger than Fantilli as well. As a returning member to the U20 team, it’s expected he’ll get a bigger role and frankly play better Fantilli. If that happens, I think any conversations about who is No. 1 could fizzle post-tournament. But, if the play of the two players is close by the time we get to the end, it could jumpstart a debate. In the pre-tournament, Bedard outplayed Fantilli notably in the first game, but Fantilli was better in the second match.
New post @TheAthleticNHL: Preliminary 2023 NHL Draft ranking https://t.co/ajpJO6RYZ6
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) November 15, 2022
2. Is Leo Carlsson in the same conversation as Bedard and Fantilli?
One semi-common question that comes up with NHL scouts when discussing Bedard and Fantilli is “well, what about Leo Carlsson?” Carlsson has looked incredible in the SHL this season, at times looking like an impact player versus men due to his high-end skill and power combination. I think there’s a gap between him and the Canadian duo due to his lack of footspeed, but some scouts disagree and think he could push for No. 2 at a minimum.
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3. Is Team USA too young or too small to win this tournament?
The U.S. is going to be one of the best teams as usual in this tournament. However, in a tournament that lends itself to 19-year-olds being the best players, Team USA is going to have a number of 18-year-olds in significant roles. The 2003 age group didn’t give them a ton for this tournament. Luke Hughes (New Jersey) will be a go-to guy for them, and Chaz Lucius (Winnipeg) should be good too, but that they cut one of their best players from the U18 Worlds for this age group in Sasha Pastujov tells you how much they will rely on younger players. Their 2004s are awesome; that age group had a lot of high picks, especially at forward. Logan Cooley (Arizona), Cutter Gauthier (Philadelphia), Jimmy Snuggerud (St. Louis) and Rutger McGroarty (Winnipeg) are all expected to be important players for the USA. Can such a young group beat a Team Canada that will have 19-year-old Dylan Guenther, Brandt Clarke, Olen Zellweger, Logan Stankoven and others, though?
The U.S. will also have one of their smallest blue lines ever, with 6-foot Ryan Chesley as the second tallest defenseman they have. They brought a lot of skill and puck-moving sense to the tournament, and I don’t have much of a quibble with the players they selected (you could have had an argument about Shai Buium, but he struggled with the pace at USA’s camp.) How this group will fare defensively is a big question going into the event versus forward groups like Canada and Sweden. To their credit, they beat both Finland and Sweden in convincing fashion in the pre-tournament.
4. Who will make a save?
This world juniors has a lot of questions in goal when it comes to the major nations. Sharks third-round pick Ben Gaudreau could be Canada’s starter. He’s an athletic and talented goalie who was great at his U18 Worlds, but has struggled mightily in the OHL the last two seasons. Or it could be the undrafted Thomas Milic who is splitting starts in Seattle. Team USA could be going back to Kaidan Mbereko who, like Milic, is an undersized, undrafted goalie but was the starter at last summer’s world juniors and also for his U.S. NTDP team. He’s actually been very good in college this season as well. Finland could be turning to Aku Koskenvuo (Vancouver), who has all of two starts this season in college. Sweden’s starter could be Carl Lindbom, the undersized seventh-round pick by Vegas who has been excellent in the Allsvenskan this season, or the undrafted Ian Blomquist.
This sets up a tournament with as much uncertainty in net as I can remember and a highly difficult task of predicting where, if at all, the impact from a goalie may come from. I hope you like goals.
5. Will Shane Wright dominate?
The once presumptive No. 1 pick from the 2022 draft, Wright will be the first-line center for Canada. He was one of the best players two years ago with a similar pool of players at the U18 World Championship. He’s had an up-and-down season, with more ups of late. I’m sure Seattle is hoping this tournament gives him a lot of puck touches and confidence. As a returning member and a player with a rich junior history, the question is which Wright will show up. The one who was very good, but didn’t quite jump off the page during the previous OHL season, or the one who scored at major clips over the previous years while showing significant two-way play?
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6. Can Fabian Lysell (Boston) and Isak Rosen (Buffalo) step up for Sweden?
Sweden will have a strong forward group with 2004-born players Leo Carlsson, Filip Bystedt, Noah Ostlund, Liam Ohgren and Jonathan Lekkerimaki playing important roles. But for them to be successful, their 2003 first-round picks Lysell and Rosen will need to be big. Both historically have been praised for their offensive talents but dinged for their inconsistencies and both have played very well in the AHL this season, especially Lysell who has been a driving player for a top AHL club in Providence. Sweden will need the best of Lysell and Rosen to win a gold medal. In the pre-tournament game versus USA, Lysell played well, but Rosen wasn’t noticeable.
7. Can Team Slovakia upset someone?
IIHF tournaments, especially at the junior level, lack a certain degree of intrigue without Russia, especially in the medal rounds. We got a dose of it when Czechia upset USA at the world juniors this summer, but without five legit contending nations the semifinal teams are largely expected to be Canada, USA, Finland and Sweden. The team with the best chance to break that prediction feels like Slovakia. On the backs of a loaded 2004 age group, even though they are missing No. 1 pick Juraj Slafkovsky, they have a lot of talent: No. 2 pick Simon Nemec (New Jersey) on defense, late first-rounder Filip Mesar (Montreal) up front, second-round pick Adam Sykora (New York Rangers), and projected first-round picks Samuel Honzek and Dalibor Dvorsky (who is an ’05). There are several other quality players on this Slovak team as well, making them highly intriguing from an NHL perspective. Can they beat a contender? They may be too young to do that, but I’m not ruling that out as a realistic possibility. Losing to Germany 5-0 in the pre-tournament was not an inspiring start, though.
Quick thoughts from today's SWE/USA and CAN/SVK World Junior pre-tournament games https://t.co/IDhWTHYsLt
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) December 22, 2022
8. Can David Reinbacher distinguish himself as the No. 1 defenseman in the 2023 NHL Draft?
The 2023 NHL Draft lacks a true premier blue-line prospect, or at the minimum one name who has clearly separated himself from the pack. You can talk to NHL scouts about their favorite defenseman and some will mention Russians Mikhail Gulyayev or Dimitri Simashev, Lukas Dragicevic in Tri-City, or someone else. But one player with a chance to create some separation from the pack is David Reinbacher. The 6-foot-2 right shot is playing real minutes and contributing real offense as a draft-eligible in Switzerland’s top league while also having NHL mobility to boot. He will be in tough to stand out on Team Austria which won’t have much of a supporting cast. Marco Kasper, for example, who went top 10 in last year’s draft, struggled at the world juniors for Austria despite his excellence versus men.
9. Does Samuel Honzek’s rise continue?
A player whose draft stock has been significantly on the rise in the first half is Honzek, the Slovak playing in Vancouver. Honzek has a lot of tools for the NHL. He’s 6-foot-4, skates well and is a hardworking two-way forward who is producing significant offense in the WHL this season. I don’t think the comparable is exact, but I look at Cutter Gauthier, who went fifth last season, and I don’t think his tools are that far off (Honzek is maybe better off the puck, but Gauthier a more natural scorer with a touch more quickness). It wouldn’t surprise me if Honzek has a big tournament, scouts see this big, mobile guy who can perform at various levels and he starts establishing himself as a top-10 pick.
10. Which Brad Lambert shows up?
The Winnipeg Jets’ No. 30 pick is a frequent topic of discussion in the prospect sphere. There’s no better example of what makes Lambert so divisive than his two world junior performances last season, both at the summer tournament and the cancelled one. At the latter, he was awesome and a force with his high-end skating and skill, and at the former, he was sent to the bench. His talent level is game-breaking level, but his decision making and effort level at times can frustrate coaches. You saw it in the pre-tournament game versus USA where he looks unique coming up the ice but then makes bad turnovers at the offensive blue line and ultimately doesn’t generate much offense. Lambert has an opportunity to show he’s a true top prospect and silence the critics at this tournament.
11. Is this Brandt Clarke’s redemption tour?
Brandt Clarke was the No. 8 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft by Los Angeles. The last time he suited up for Team Canada was in his draft season at the U18 World Championship. He was named one of the defensemen of the tournament by the media, but scouts thought his performance was a bit uneven, and after a first half in the OHL that didn’t blow people away he wasn’t invited to Canada’s U20 camp in the winter of 2021. He has a ton of skill and playmaking ability and competes well enough, but the concerns were his awkward skating and how it impacted his all-around play. To his credit, Clarke then had a great camp with the Kings, and looked like he belonged in several NHL games as a 19-year-old. He looks primed to have a major role now with Team Canada. Is this the tournament where Clarke silences some of his doubters by making a significant two-way impact for Canada? His first pre-tournament game versus Switzerland didn’t inspire confidence he was going to, but it’s a long way to the gold medal game and he was one of the best players in the second pre-tournament game.
12. Can Tyler Boucher silence the critics?
Boucher was the No. 10 pick by Ottawa in 2021, and since then, the pick has been the subject of a lot of criticism, including from myself. Boucher didn’t ask to be the 10th pick, but a tumultuous 2021-22 season escalated the concerns and discussions. Ottawa picked him trying to get a bruising power forward who can provide some offense, too. He’s looked more like that this season with the 67’s, drawing much more positive reviews from NHL scouts than the season prior. Boucher is primed to play a big role for Team USA, and although his style of play isn’t ideal for an IIHF-officiated tournament, he looks to be in a position to make an impact. I don’t think we will leave Halifax thinking he’s a top-10 player from his draft, but could we see Boucher look like a future quality NHL forward? I think that’s realistic.
(Photo of Connor Bedard: Andy Devlin/ Getty Images)
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