Spring games are on deck, the transfer portal will open soon and recruiting will crank up in a matter of days. Plenty to discuss, so let’s get to your questions in the latest edition of Ask the Texpert.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
TCU’s recruiting improvements following last year’s College Football Playoff run have been well-documented. However, the Horned Frogs seem to be an also-ran for the most highly-regarded recruits. If you are TCU, are you happy about the recruiting Class of 2023? Underwhelmed? And what will it take to start truly challenging the UTs and A&Ms of the world? — Ryan F.
TCU’s 2023 recruiting class ranked 20th in the 247Sports Composite. That’s the highest the Frogs have finished in the national recruiting rankings in the modern era. Sonny Dykes is probably happy with that. It would be nice to be higher, but I suspect the impact of TCU’s Playoff run will be felt more tangibly this offseason.
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Anecdotally, it seems the advent of spring official visits has accelerated the decision timeline for more blue-chip recruits and fewer of them are waiting until December or February. That would have worked against TCU last year because the staff was new and the team was coming off a 5-7 season, so there wasn’t a ton of momentum entering the season. And Dykes and his staff purposely took a deliberate approach to the 2023 class. By the time TCU caught fire on the field, there were just two months until signing day.
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The recruiting impact should persist this spring and there’s certainly a buzz around TCU football. I visited for practice last week and the Frogs had a ton of recruits on campus, including five-star edge rusher Colin Simmons, the No. 3 player in the 247Sports Composite (and it appears the visit went well).
Five-star EDGE Colin Simmons will visit TCU on Friday instead of taking his Saturday visit to USC⭐️
Read: https://t.co/iYKF4w1wOk pic.twitter.com/lozJURfe7e
— On3 Recruits (@On3Recruits) April 6, 2023
I wouldn’t be surprised to see TCU push for a spot in the top-15 in this upcoming recruiting class. But going head-to-head with Texas and Texas A&M for four- and five-stars on a consistent basis is an uphill battle. In addition to brand names and good recruiters on staff, the Longhorns and Aggies have been ahead of the curve in name, image and likeness. TCU is not yet on the same level in that area.
When I visited with Dykes, he alluded to the general challenge of going against programs with deeper pockets for coveted recruits.
“It’s kind of hard to know where you are with guys,” he said. “It’s always been this way to an extent, but you recruit this player for two years, you have this great relationship, they come to your house a million times, they know your family, they know your kids, they know your dogs, they have a specific chair they sit in, the whole thing. And then the night before signing day, somebody offers them half a million dollars. … That part of recruiting makes it hard.”
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It doesn’t mean TCU will always lose recruiting battles with blue bloods and not every top-100 recruit will use NIL as a driving force in decision-making. But for now, it’s a factor that will influence who recruits at a top-10 level nationally.
Even if TCU consistently recruited at a top-20 or top-25 level, it would be a step up from where it’s been (the last eight classes’ average recruiting ranking is 30.8). And Dykes’ smart use of the transfer portal can help level things out against power programs.
On paper, it seems like Texas Tech should at least be on par success-wise with TCU and Baylor, if not ahead. It’s a public school with a large alumni base and seems to be pulling ahead in facilities. The only distinct advantage TCU and Baylor have is geography, but I don’t see that as enough of a reason for Tech to have come within shouting distance of a Big 12 title only once (2008), while TCU and Baylor have trophies. Is there some existential reason why Tech hasn’t broken through, or does it just come down to poor coaching hires (Tuberville, Kingsbury, Wells)? — Andrew G., Fort Worth, Texas
Coaching hires and recruiting are probably the biggest factors.
The momentum the program built in the Mike Leach era withered away following his departure. Tommy Tuberville never really seemed like a fit and left after three seasons and a 20-17 record.
Kliff Kingsbury was a celebrated hire as an alumnus and former Tech football star, but he was just 33 and had only been a full-time assistant coach for three years when he took over. There was a steep learning curve in those early years, Tech never seriously became a Big 12 contender (only one season of at least eight wins) and by the time he left, the roster wasn’t in great shape.
Matt Wells spent a lot of effort addressing the roster, the fruits of which we’re seeing now, but two four-win seasons to start his tenure stunted momentum and buzz around the program, and by Year 3 fans were clamoring for someone new.
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On the recruiting trail, TCU and Baylor performed better in that time. The Horned Frogs’ average recruiting class ranking in the last 10 cycles is 32.9 and Baylor’s is 36.7. Texas Tech’s average class ranking in that same span is 49.1. That has also played out in NFL Draft results, where Baylor (27) and TCU (24) have more players chosen since 2013 than Texas Tech (15).
Geography certainly played a role because its in-state Big 12 peers are so much closer to where the high-level Texas talent is concentrated (Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, East Texas). But it’s a little easier to overcome distance as an obstacle now since every game is televised and social media plays such a large role in recruiting. Schools that seemed far away 25 years ago can now inundate you with content; that connectivity and familiarity can make it feel so much closer than it actually is.
Texas Tech has a lot going for it right now. It has the fifth-highest enrollment among Texas FBS schools, a passionate fan base and its alumni and donors are stepping up big-time financially, both in facility renovations and NIL. The fans feed off Joey McGuire’s energy and he has a recruiting strategy the program believes in, which netted impressive results in his first full recruiting cycle, where the Red Raiders finished 27th. If they can keep it up, Tech can be a serious factor in the new Big 12.
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Which opponents that Texas and Texas A&M have never played against would you like to see a home-and-home series with? — Grzegorz K.
To answer this, I combed through each team’s records to see which Power 5 teams they haven’t played. Texas hasn’t played Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Illinois and Michigan State. Texas A&M hasn’t played Indiana, Minnesota, Oregon, Oregon State, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia and Wisconsin.
I would love to see Texas play a series with Clemson. Both programs have been around for more than 100 years. Both have multiple national titles. They recruit at a high level and produce draft picks.
Texas A&M and Wisconsin would be a fun home-and-home. The Aggies experiencing “Jump Around” at Camp Randall for the first time and the Badgers going to Midnight Yell and experiencing a Saturday at Kyle Field would be fun for those respective fan bases.
SMU went 7-6 in Rhett Lashlee’s first season. (Raymond Carlin III / USA Today)How much better should the SMU secondary be in Year 2 under Rhett Lashlee after some major offseason additions? How much better does it need to be to vie for a conference championship? — John M.
The Mustang secondary has a chance to take a big step forward. The group made strides last season under the new staff (SMU allowed 7.4 yards per pass attempt in 2022, down from 8.3 in 2021) and it should be better this year after Lashlee mined the transfer portal for experience.
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SMU signed five transfer defensive backs and four of them — Jonathan McGill (Stanford), Chris Megginson (Liberty), Cale Sanders Jr. (Fresno State) and Charles Woods (West Virginia) — have a combined 99 collegiate starts. The other, former LSU corner Jaelyn Davis-Robinson, has “an unlimited amount of ability,” Lashlee said.
“We wanted to get older and more mature,” Lashlee told me recently.
Lashlee said with the addition of McGill and the return of Ahmaad Moses, who played in all 13 games as a true freshman last year and veterans Brandon Crossley and Bryan Massey, SMU is a lot better at safety than it was last year.
The Ponies did better in the portal at corner than they expected, signing four. Megginson has played in SMU’s defensive scheme under defensive coordinator Scott Symons and cornerbacks coach Rickey Hunley, who were both at Liberty prior to arriving on the Hilltop. Woods, Sanders and Davis-Robinson deepen the talent at the position, where they also still have some returnees.
“We feel a lot better,” Lashlee said. “We’ve got both older, experienced guys, but we also brought some really good, young, talented guys to develop.”
SMU ranked 110th in defensive yards per attempt in 2021 and 84th last season. If the Mustangs can get into the top 50 in that category this year, combined with the substantial offensive talent on hand, it would make them tough to beat in the AAC.
What have you heard about Quinn Ewers’ offseason so far? There’s been some talk out of Austin about how he’s in much better shape and how he’s been taking the “job” of being the Texas QB more seriously than last year. Are you hearing the same, and if so, do you buy it or is this just typical spring football Kool-Aid? — Chris M.
I have heard much of the same regarding Ewers. With any team, not just Texas, it can be difficult to decipher what’s run-of-the-mill spring optimism and what’s real. It’s not like Steve Sarkisian would tell us Ewers is struggling if he was and it’s hard to know without being able to see full practices with your own eyes.
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But, it definitely caught my eye when Sarkisian used the words “maturity” and “leader” when mentioning Ewers early this spring. Those are words he wasn’t using when discussing Ewers last season and I think they carry some heft. If it rings true, then the former five-star recruit should be set for a breakout season because the talent is there.
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Is there any word out of Houston on who is winning the QB battle between Lucas Coley and Donovan Smith? — Kelvin Y.
The coaches have publicly played it close to the vest and probably won’t announce a starter until August, but I’d expect Smith to be the starter. He has eight starts as a Big 12 quarterback under his belt and that experience gives him an edge. He’s big (6-foot-5, 241 pounds), strong and talented. Aside from turnover issues, he played well when called upon at Texas Tech.
The staff really likes Coley, too. Quarterbacks coach Mike Burchett called him “eager” and “detailed,” and head coach Dana Holgorsen really likes his competitive nature. Coley, a former Arkansas transfer who arrived last offseason, had no intentions of backing down when Houston brought Smith in the winter transfer portal window.
And Holgorsen mentioned Monday that the Cougars will probably seek another quarterback in the transfer portal to strengthen their depth at the position. But when the dust settles, Smith will probably be the guy.
Who is QB1 for Texas Tech in the opener at Wyoming? Is it an open competition this spring? — Russell C.
It is an open competition between Tyler Shough and Behren Morton, but when the season arrives, I’d bet on Shough — who won the job out of training camp the last two seasons — to be the starter once again.
That doesn’t mean Morton won’t play. Texas Tech is excited about Morton, the third-year sophomore and Tech’s highest-ranked quarterback signee of this century. He played in nine games last year, starting four, and flashed his potential. I’d expect they’ll find a way to get him on the field even if he’s not the starter. He’s the future.
But Shough’s combination of experience and ability will be tough to beat. Hopefully, he can have better luck this season after losing large portions of the last two to injury.
(Top photo: Raymond Carlin III / USA Today)
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