Sabres Monday thoughts: Playoff odds, Tage Thompsons neck guard and more

BUFFALO, N.Y. The Buffalo Sabres have spent a lot of time talking about the need to compete harder. Everyone in the organization from general manager Kevyn Adams, to coach Don Granato and players like Dylan Cozens and Kyle Okposo took turns with public versions of that message. Behind closed doors, the messages were even

BUFFALO, N.Y. — The Buffalo Sabres have spent a lot of time talking about the need to compete harder. Everyone in the organization from general manager Kevyn Adams, to coach Don Granato and players like Dylan Cozens and Kyle Okposo took turns with public versions of that message. Behind closed doors, the messages were even more urgent.

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It’s tough to tell if it’s a problem that will persist throughout the season for the Sabres, but the last couple of games have offered some hope that they’re moving in the right direction. First, they beat the Bruins 3-1 in Boston Thursday night. Then they played another strong game against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday but came away with only one point after a shootout loss. They had a 48-31 advantage in shots, 17 hits and a 58 percent expected goal share at five-on-five but still got only one point.

“Yeah, it hurts not to get the win, but I think we can agree that the last two games have looked a little bit different than the previous 25 or whatever we played,” Sabres captain Okposo said. “It’s more of how we want to play. I think if we keep doing that on a nightly basis, we’re going to put ourselves in a spot to be there.”

That might sound like Okposo painting Saturday as a moral victory for the Sabres, but it’s also the reality. The Sabres have looked like a different team their last two times on the ice. The question is whether this is a short-term bump in competitiveness or whether the messages Granato has been trying to hammer home are sinking in.

But what is clear is that the Sabres don’t have too much time to be taking solace in simply playing better. They need points. The loss to the Canadiens was another failed attempt to win consecutive games. The Sabres have only won back-to-back games once this season and that was at the end of October. Heading into Sunday play, The Athletic’s NHL playoff odds model has the Sabres’ playoff chances at 6 percent. MoneyPuck gives the Sabres a 7.6 percent chance to make the postseason.

There are a few factors at play in those numbers. One is that the Sabres have a record of 11-14-3 and the second-worst points percentage in the Eastern Conference. Their minus-15 goal differential is the third worst in the conference. Five teams are between the Sabres and the Tampa Bay Lightning, who hold the second wild-card spot in the conference. All of those teams have at least one game in hand on the Sabres.

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The Sabres were in a nearly identical position last season with a 12-14-2 record, albeit with a much better goal differential. They showed last season they can get back into contention after a slow start. But they also learned how tough a road that can be.

Tage Thompson wore neck protection for the first time on Saturday. Thompson missed three weeks in November because of a hand injury he sustained against the Bruins on Nov. 14. Earlier in that game, though, Thompson was cut by a skate on the top of his foot. He wears cut-resistant socks, but the skate blade still cut through the tongue of Thompson’s skate and sock before cutting a tendon in his foot. He got stitches and returned to the game, but that cut made him realize how easily a skate in the wrong place can cause damage. So neck protection is a no-brainer.

“If it doesn’t affect the way I play and feels comfortable, why not wear it?” Thompson said.

“You never know what can happen if you get into a vulnerable position. Guys move so fast out there. It’s better to be safe.”

2. The power play is a mess

One of the biggest differences between the Sabres this season and the Sabres of last season is the power play. They are 25th in the NHL in goals scored per 60 minutes of power-play time, according to Natural Stat Trick. On Saturday against the Canadiens, who entered the game ranked 30th on the penalty kill, the Sabres went 0-for-6 on the power play. They did manage to get 13 shots on goal and several strong scoring chances but failed to convert. The Sabres have now gone scoreless on the man advantage in 18 of their 28 games and only have two games with more than one power-play goal. Granato thinks players need to be more direct and have the same aggressive approach they’ve started to show at five-on-five. Getting Alex Tuch back should help, too, and that could happen later in the week. But this is the main reason the Sabres have dropped from third in goals per game last season to 25th this season. And it cost them a win against Montreal on Saturday.

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3. A goalie decision is looming

Devon Levi was outstanding for a second straight game on Saturday. He stopped 29 of 31 shots, including two sprawling saves, to keep the game tied in the third period. Levi could have been better in the shootout, but before that he was excellent. Since coming back up from Rochester, Levi has stopped 61 of 64 shots in two games. When the Sabres initially sent him to the AHL, the thought was he might be there for a while while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Eric Comrie held the net in the NHL. Luukkonen getting sick and missing four days of practice opened the door for Levi, and he took advantage.

Granato said Luukkonen should be ready to play when the Sabres go on their road trip next week, but Levi has now given the team another decision about how to handle the goalie situation. Since returning from injury, Comrie has a 5.17 goals-against average and an .827 save percentage in four starts. The Sabres were 0-4 in those games. Levi, meanwhile, seemed to use his brief stint in Rochester to find some confidence. He had a .921 save percentage in two games, including a 40-save gem in his debut. It may be best for Levi’s long-term development to keep getting time in Rochester, but he’s giving the Sabres a chance to win the way he’s playing.

4. The Sabres are getting closer to full health

This week, Jack Quinn practiced in a normal jersey for the first time. He’s still on track for an early January return. Jordan Greenway and Tuch both have a chance to return during the second part of Buffalo’s road trip out west next week. And Luukkonen is also going to be able to play during that trip. The one injured player who hasn’t progressed as expected is Zemgus Girgensons. Granato said his progress has stalled and he’ll be out for more than a week.

5. Robinson’s hit

Sabres newcomer Eric Robinson got a five-minute major and game misconduct for his hit on Justin Barron against the Canadiens. Okposo let officials know he wasn’t pleased about the call when Oilers forward Evander Kane didn’t receive any penalty for a similar hit the night before.

“It doesn’t make any sense,” Okposo said. “It’s the exact same play. There’s an injury on the play. I understand that you have to call it and that’s fine. That’s not on him. I just don’t like the consistency factor.”

Robinson boarding on Barron #LetsGoBuffalo #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/ar0sOKsGFe

— Buffalo Hockey Moments (@SabresPlays) December 10, 2023

Absolutely ridiculous that Evander Kane didn’t get called for boarding on this hit on Jonas Brodin #mnwild pic.twitter.com/q1REV0Y2TE

— Alex Micheletti (@AlexMicheletti) December 9, 2023

Robinson has made his presence felt in just two games with the Sabres, but that hit left the Sabres short-handed, and the Canadiens scored twice during that stretch that included two minutes of four-on-four and three minutes of power play for Montreal. It left the Sabres chasing a comeback the rest of the night and they came up short.

(Photo of Tage Thompson skating ahead of Montreal Canadiens defenseman Jayden Struble: Timothy T. Ludwig / USA Today)

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