5 game theory tips to help get your team into and through the fantasy football playoffs

As we approach the fantasy playoffs, its a good time to revisit the ideas of Optimality and Game Theory. In Optimality, youre always striving for the best possible outcome at the least possible cost. In Game Theory, you recognize that the best possible strategy may depend on what your opponents are doing.

As we approach the fantasy playoffs, it’s a good time to revisit the ideas of Optimality and Game Theory.

In Optimality, you’re always striving for the best possible outcome at the least possible cost. In Game Theory, you recognize that the best possible strategy may depend on what your opponents are doing.

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Whether you’ve clinched your berth, are fighting for your life or are mathematically eliminated (if so, thanks for still reading!), you can still benefit from a few reminders of how game theory can help you outlast your opponents. Week 13 has four fantasy-relevant teams on bye, along with the Giants and Vikings. Sorry, Minnesota fans — that MNF showing was abominable.

  • There are sure to be teams in your league that need a win now to make it into the playoffs. They might have to drop some Ravens, Bills, Raiders, Vikings or Bears in order to do so. Or a good defense. Even if you don’t need anyone specifically, don’t forget to check out the new free agents in your leagues in case one is an upgrade for you.
  • If you’re in the playoffs, you can try to predict your likely matchup and use these next two weeks to prepare to beat that manager specifically. One way to do so is to stockpile a great defense: in Week 15 the Falcons get the Panthers, Saints get the Giants, and Rams get the Commanders. If you’ve been counting on Buffalo, Baltimore or Dallas as your D/ST for that week, you might want to lock up another option now. It helps you and blocks your opponent. Another way to prep is if you’re deciding between two WR3 type players, you should choose (or pick up) the one being thrown to by your opponent’s QB. For example, if my opponent will start Josh Allen, I’d rather start Khalil Shakir than Romeo Doubs to potentially have a share in the fantasy points generated by Allen.
  • Stockpile as many skill players as you can who will face the Commanders (pass game), Chargers (both), Eagles (pass game), Cardinals (both), Buccaneers (pass game), Giants (both), Panthers (run game) and Jaguars (pass game) in your playoff weeks.
  • Be prepared to make the tough choices. Week 16: Saquon Barkley vs. Philadelphia or AJ Dillon/Aaron Jones vs. Carolina? Or a Bears RB vs. Arizona? You only get one shot to move on, so it’s no time for ADP loyalty or wishful thinking.
  • Don’t stop playing hard. Even if you’re not a playoff contender, you can still affect the outcome of the league. Never forget to set a lineup or stop trying to set the best lineup you can. There are various ways that commissioners can motivate this. My dynasty league gives the best non-playoff finisher better odds to get the first rookie draft pick, for instance.

    • Now more than ever, it’s important not to overthink your more straightforward decisions and to tinker with care. Here are a few of the usual reminders and suggestions for Week 13. Good luck!

    Don’t overthink

    Alvin Kamara

    Kamara is coming off a mediocre showing (depending on your scoring) vs. a good Atlanta run defense in which he totaled 69 rushing yards and 4/50 receiving, which saved his day. This week he’ll face Detroit, another tough team that allows the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Fortunately for you, a ton of Kamara’s value comes from the passing game, and they are likely to be without several key receiving weapons. Chris Olave is in the concussion protocol, Rashid Shaheed suffered a thigh injury and of course, Michael Thomas is on IR. When Kamara has faced tough rushing matchups earlier in the season, he has seen an uptick in catches and receiving yards. Further, he’s tied for seventh among RBs with seven red zone targets. Despite hauling in all of them, he has only one receiving touchdown so far this season, so I expect his luck to change this weekend. With all the byes this week, it’s unlikely you would have the luxury of benching Kamara in a bad matchup even if you wanted to. Let this be enough to trust him even though Atlanta will surely be putting extra effort into containing him.

    Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua

    The Rams went wild in Week 12 but somehow Kupp and Nacua were both shut out of the Matt Stafford Touchdown Bonanza. As they host the dysfunctional but still dangerous Browns in Week 13, some managers might be leery of slotting these receivers back into lineups. After all, the Browns are fantasy’s worst nightmare, allowing the fewest overall fantasy points, fewest to opposing QBs and second fewest to opposing wide receivers. They allow fewer than 20 points per game. The game total on this one is low – 39.5 points – but the Rams are home favorites and after ending Tyler Higbee’s and Kyren Williams’ TD droughts, it’s only fair to get the WRs back in the end zone. With several star receivers on bye, you’ll have to continue to trust Nacua and Kupp to win over Cleveland’s elite secondary this weekend.

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    Tinker with

    Jake Browning

    For those in SuperFlex leagues or who have Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields on bye, I think there’s reason to hold out some hope for Browning and Ja’Marr Chase this week. First, Browning wasn’t as bad as his final fantasy score (12-ish fantasy points) as his completion percentage was third best and his QB rating was the 11th best for Week 12 (ahead of Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray). Of course, you don’t get fantasy points for those things, but they provide some insight that he isn’t a total disaster. In a great matchup with Jacksonville this week (third best QB matchup, 10th best overall), Browning could easily fill a QB2 role with 18-20 fantasy points. I don’t do rankings, but I’d start him over any New England QB, Bryce Young or Tim Boyle. It’s even close between Browning and Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray due to their tricky matchups.

    Juwan Johnson

    This one requires some watching but if Olave doesn’t make it out of the concussion protocol and Shaheed gets ruled out, the tight end Johnson would be the next man up for New Orleans. He was targeted seven times in Week 12, catching four for 45 yards. As noted above, while Detroit is tough on running backs, they give up plenty of fantasy points to receivers. Johnson is a big end zone target, though he only has one score this season, and could be relied upon to help move the chains in what should be a competitive game. Rookie A.T. Perry could be a dart throw receiver option in very deep leagues.

    (Top photo: Michael Owens/Getty Images)

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